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Prediction for CME (2025-08-22T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-22T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40729/-1
CME Note: Very faint loop CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-08-22T12:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. There is no abundantly clear source aside from some general field line movement seen in SDO AIA 171 and 211 from near AR14191 (N10E59). No arrival signature of a CME detected in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-26T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40731/1
Model Inputs:
2025-08-22T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-49.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=282.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2025-08-23T01:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-26T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-27T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250823_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 98.07 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-22T17:56Z

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